Calibration
HMMT Feb 2026 → AIME26
AIME26 is estimated from HMMT Feb 2026 with a Hill curve fitted on 19 models measured on both: y = 0.0000 + (1.0714 − 0.0000)·x^2.10 / (0.32639^2.10 + x^2.10), R² = 0.99, cross-validated error 1.3 pp. It is used for 4 estimates.
| Estimated model | HMMT Feb 2026 | AIME26 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 | 94.8% | 96.8% | estimated ± 1.3 pp, medium confidence |
| DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 | 95.2% | 96.9% | estimated ± 1.3 pp, medium confidence |
| Qwen3.7 Max | 97.1% | 97.3% | estimated ± 1.3 pp, medium confidence |
| Qwen3.7 Plus | 92.9% | 96.4% | estimated ± 1.3 pp, high confidence |