Calibration

HLE → ARC-AGI-3

Name: benchgap: LLM benchmark scores, measured and estimated
Creator: benchgap

ARC-AGI-3 is estimated from HLE with a offset logistic curve fitted on 5 models measured on both: y = 0.0027 + (0.3016 − 0.0027) / (1 + exp(−200.00·(x − 0.5947))), R² = 1.00, cross-validated error 11.5 pp. It is used for 4 estimates.

Estimated model	HLE	ARC-AGI-3	Source
Agents-A1	47.6%	0.3%	estimated ± 11.5 pp, low confidence
dots3-note Preview	52.6%	0.3%	estimated ± 11.5 pp, low confidence
GPT-5.4 Pro	58.7%	5.6%	estimated ± 11.5 pp, low confidence
GPT-5.5 Pro	57.2%	0.6%	estimated ± 11.5 pp, low confidence