Calibration
GPQA → CritPt
CritPt is estimated from GPQA with a offset logistic curve fitted on 61 models measured on both: y = 0.0056 + (0.4240 − 0.0056) / (1 + exp(−42.61·(x − 0.9340))), R² = 0.78, cross-validated error 4.1 pp. It is used for 21 estimates.
| Estimated model | GPQA | CritPt | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 3.5 Sonnet | 59.4% | 0.6% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Claude Mythos 5 | 94.1% | 24.6% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 83.4% | 1.1% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Interfaze Beta | 89.9% | 8.2% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| LFM2.5-230M | 25.4% | 0.6% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, medium confidence |
| LFM2.5-VL-450M | 25.7% | 0.6% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, medium confidence |
| MAI-Thinking-1 | 84.2% | 1.4% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Mellum2-12B-A2.5B-Instruct | 40.9% | 0.6% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Mellum2-12B-A2.5B-Thinking | 57.6% | 0.6% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Ornith-1.5-35B-A3B | 89.2% | 6.5% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Ornith-1.5-397B | 92.8% | 18.8% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Ornith-1.5-9B | 86.4% | 2.6% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Qwen3 235B 2507 | 77.5% | 0.6% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Qwen3.8 Max | 92.6% | 18.0% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Qwen3.8-Omni-Flash | 91.0% | 11.6% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Sakana Fugu | 95.5% | 30.3% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Sakana Fugu-Ultra | 95.5% | 30.3% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Soofi S 30B-A3B | 43.4% | 0.6% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| Ternary Bonsai 2 27B | 85.8% | 2.1% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| ZAYA1-74B-Preview | 57.3% | 0.6% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |
| ZAYA1-8B | 71.0% | 0.6% | estimated ± 4.1 pp, high confidence |