Calibration
CyberGym → ExploitGym
ExploitGym is estimated from CyberGym with a offset logistic curve fitted on 11 models measured on both: y = 0.0148 + (0.1783 − 0.0148) / (1 + exp(−77.87·(x − 0.7838))), R² = 0.36, cross-validated error 9.3 pp. It is used for 8 estimates.
| Estimated model | CyberGym | ExploitGym | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.5 | 50.6% | 1.5% | estimated ± 9.3 pp, low confidence |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber | 83.2% | 17.5% | estimated ± 9.3 pp, low confidence |
| Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber | 86.2% | 17.8% | estimated ± 9.3 pp, low confidence |
| GLM-5 | 43.2% | 1.5% | estimated ± 9.3 pp, low confidence |
| Hy4 preview | 78.4% | 9.7% | estimated ± 9.3 pp, low confidence |
| Ling 3.1 Flash | 87.9% | 17.8% | estimated ± 9.3 pp, low confidence |
| Muse Spark | 43.5% | 1.5% | estimated ± 9.3 pp, low confidence |
| Fugu Cyber | 86.9% | 17.8% | estimated ± 9.3 pp, low confidence |