Calibration
CritPt → AA-HLE
AA-HLE is estimated from CritPt with a Hill curve fitted on 186 models measured on both: y = 0.0733 + (1.2000 − 0.0733)·x^0.53 / (0.71180^0.53 + x^0.53), R² = 0.89, cross-validated error 4.6 pp. It is used for 3 estimates.
| Estimated model | CritPt | AA-HLE | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3 Pro Deep Think | 25.7% | 48.8% | estimated ± 4.6 pp, high confidence |
| GPT-5.4 Pro | 30.0% | 51.0% | estimated ± 4.6 pp, high confidence |
| GPT-5.5 Pro | 30.6% | 51.3% | estimated ± 4.6 pp, high confidence |