Calibration
CharXiv → RealWorldQA
RealWorldQA is estimated from CharXiv with a linear curve fitted on 7 models measured on both: y = 0.2136·x + 0.6808, R² = 0.72, cross-validated error 1.1 pp. It is used for 16 estimates.
| Estimated model | CharXiv | RealWorldQA | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Mythos 5 | 93.5% | 88.0% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Claude Opus 4.7 (Adaptive) | 91.0% | 87.5% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Claude Opus 4.8 | 89.9% | 87.3% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 77.4% | 84.6% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, low confidence |
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 88.3% | 86.9% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite | 73.2% | 83.7% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, low confidence |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash | 84.2% | 86.1% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Gemini 3.7 Flash | 88.7% | 87.0% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |
| GLM-5.3-Flash | 89.4% | 87.2% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Inkling | 82.0% | 85.6% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Inkling-Small | 81.3% | 85.4% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |
| MiMo-V2.5 | 81.0% | 85.4% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Muse Glimmer 30B | 78.8% | 84.9% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 88.4% | 87.0% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Sakana Fugu | 85.1% | 86.3% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Sakana Fugu-Ultra | 86.6% | 86.6% | estimated ± 1.1 pp, medium confidence |