Calibration
ARC-AGI-2 → AA-HLE
AA-HLE is estimated from ARC-AGI-2 with a offset logistic curve fitted on 34 models measured on both: y = 0.2877 + (1.2000 − 0.2877) / (1 + exp(−3.46·(x − 1.2080))), R² = 0.62, cross-validated error 6.3 pp. It is used for 2 estimates.
| Estimated model | ARC-AGI-2 | AA-HLE | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 13.6% | 30.9% | estimated ± 6.3 pp, medium confidence |
| dots3-note Preview | 81.4% | 47.3% | estimated ± 6.3 pp, medium confidence |