Calibration
AIME26 → HMMT Feb 2026
HMMT Feb 2026 is estimated from AIME26 with a Hill curve fitted on 19 models measured on both: y = 0.2374 + (1.2000 − 0.2374)·x^6.00 / (0.85857^6.00 + x^6.00), R² = 0.95, cross-validated error 4.0 pp. It is used for 10 estimates.
| Estimated model | AIME26 | HMMT Feb 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.X K2 | 97.1% | 88.9% | estimated ± 4.0 pp, high confidence |
| Gemma 4 12B | 77.5% | 57.5% | estimated ± 4.0 pp, high confidence |
| Inkling | 97.1% | 88.9% | estimated ± 4.0 pp, high confidence |
| LFM2.5-8B-A1B | 50.0% | 27.3% | estimated ± 4.0 pp, high confidence |
| LLaDA2.2-mini | 35.1% | 24.2% | estimated ± 4.0 pp, medium confidence |
| Muse Glimmer 30B | 94.7% | 85.6% | estimated ± 4.0 pp, high confidence |
| Beam | 97.8% | 89.8% | estimated ± 4.0 pp, high confidence |
| Solar Pro 4 | 95.3% | 86.5% | estimated ± 4.0 pp, high confidence |
| Ternary Bonsai 2 27B | 95.8% | 87.2% | estimated ± 4.0 pp, high confidence |
| ZAYA1-74B-Preview | 76.4% | 55.7% | estimated ± 4.0 pp, high confidence |