# Vals GPQA Diamond → ARC-AGI-1

Calibration · https://benchgap.net/calibration/1543 · data retrieved 2026-10-29

ARC-AGI-1 is estimated from Vals GPQA Diamond with a Hill curve fitted on 21 models measured on both: y = 0.0000 + (1.2000 − 0.0000)·x^6.00 / (0.76014^6.00 + x^6.00), R² = 0.76, cross-validated error 5.9 pp. It is used for 14 estimates.

| Estimated model | Vals GPQA Diamond | ARC-AGI-1 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| [MiniMax M3](https://benchgap.net/model/minimax-m3.md) | 92.7% | 92.0% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, medium confidence |
| [Grok 4.3](https://benchgap.net/model/grok-4-3.md) | 91.4% | 90.2% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, medium confidence |
| [GLM-5.3](https://benchgap.net/model/glm-5-3.md) | 88.1% | 85.0% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, medium confidence |
| [Gemini 3 Flash](https://benchgap.net/model/gemini-3-flash.md) | 87.9% | 84.6% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, medium confidence |
| [Qwen3.6 Plus](https://benchgap.net/model/qwen3-6-plus.md) | 87.4% | 83.8% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, medium confidence |
| [GLM-5.3-Flash](https://benchgap.net/model/glm-5-3-flash.md) | 86.4% | 82.0% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, medium confidence |
| [Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite](https://benchgap.net/model/gemini-3-5-flash-lite.md) | 83.8% | 77.1% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, medium confidence |
| [Qwen3.5 Flash](https://benchgap.net/model/qwen3-5-flash.md) | 82.8% | 75.1% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, medium confidence |
| [MiMo-V2.5](https://benchgap.net/model/mimo-v2-5.md) | 81.6% | 72.6% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, medium confidence |
| [Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite](https://benchgap.net/model/gemini-3-1-flash-lite.md) | 81.1% | 71.5% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, medium confidence |
| [GLM-4.7](https://benchgap.net/model/glm-4-7.md) | 80.1% | 69.3% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, medium confidence |
| [GLM-4.6](https://benchgap.net/model/glm-4-6.md) | 74.5% | 56.4% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, low confidence |
| [Claude Haiku 4.5](https://benchgap.net/model/claude-haiku-4-5.md) | 72.2% | 50.8% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, low confidence |
| [GLM-4.5](https://benchgap.net/model/glm-4-5.md) | 72.2% | 50.8% | estimated ± 5.9 pp, low confidence |

## Fitted on

| Model | Vals GPQA Diamond | ARC-AGI-1 |
|---|---|---|
| [Claude Fable 5](https://benchgap.net/model/claude-fable.md) | 93.2% | 98.5% |
| [Claude Fable 5.1](https://benchgap.net/model/claude-fable-5-1.md) | 93.4% | 97.5% |
| [Claude Opus 4.8](https://benchgap.net/model/claude-opus-4-8.md) | 92.4% | 92.5% |
| [Claude Opus 5](https://benchgap.net/model/claude-opus-5.md) | 93.4% | 97.5% |
| [Claude Sonnet 4.6](https://benchgap.net/model/claude-sonnet-4-6.md) | 85.6% | 86.0% |
| [DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731](https://benchgap.net/model/deepseek-v4-flash-0731.md) | 89.9% | 89.0% |
| [DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813](https://benchgap.net/model/deepseek-v4-pro-0813.md) | 92.4% | 90.0% |
| [Gemini 3.5 Flash](https://benchgap.net/model/gemini-3-5-flash.md) | 92.7% | 92.5% |
| [Gemini 3.6 Flash](https://benchgap.net/model/gemini-3-6-flash.md) | 93.4% | 91.2% |
| [Gemini 3.7 Flash](https://benchgap.net/model/gemini-3-7-flash.md) | 93.9% | 95.5% |
| [Gemini 3.8 Flash](https://benchgap.net/model/gemini-3-8-flash.md) | 94.4% | 98.5% |
| [GPT-5.4 mini](https://benchgap.net/model/gpt-5-4-mini.md) | 83.1% | 63.7% |
| [GPT-5.4 nano](https://benchgap.net/model/gpt-5-4-nano.md) | 77.5% | 51.5% |
| [GPT-5.5](https://benchgap.net/model/gpt-5-5.md) | 93.2% | 95.0% |
| [GPT-5.6 Luna](https://benchgap.net/model/gpt-5-6-luna.md) | 91.7% | 88.0% |
| [GPT-5.6 Sol](https://benchgap.net/model/gpt-5-6-sol.md) | 95.2% | 96.5% |
| [GPT-5.6 Terra](https://benchgap.net/model/gpt-5-6-terra.md) | 90.9% | 96.5% |
| [Grok 4.5](https://benchgap.net/model/grok-4-5.md) | 92.9% | 85.7% |
| [Grok 4.6](https://benchgap.net/model/grok-4-6.md) | 94.7% | 87.0% |
| [Inkling-Small](https://benchgap.net/model/inkling-small.md) | 83.6% | 84.0% |
| [Kimi K3](https://benchgap.net/model/kimi-k3.md) | 92.9% | 94.5% |