Calibration
GPQA Diamond → CritPt
CritPt is estimated from GPQA Diamond with a inverse Michaelis–Menten curve fitted on 16 models measured on both: y = 0.70348·(x − 0.8531) / (0.8531 + 0.3561 − x), R² = 0.71, cross-validated error 6.8 pp. It is used for 3 estimates.
| Estimated model | GPQA Diamond | CritPt | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 Astra (high) | 94.9% | 25.9% | estimated ± 6.8 pp, medium confidence |
| Grok 4.6 (high) | 94.9% | 25.9% | estimated ± 6.8 pp, medium confidence |
| Gemini 3.7 Flash (high) | 94.5% | 24.5% | estimated ± 6.8 pp, medium confidence |