Calibration

V* → CharXiv

Name: benchgap: LLM benchmark scores, measured and estimated
Creator: benchgap

CharXiv is estimated from V* with a offset logistic curve fitted on 10 models measured on both: y = 0.0000 + (0.7987 − 0.0000) / (1 + exp(−154.93·(x − 0.6584))), R² = 0.82, cross-validated error 4.3 pp. It is used for 1 estimate.

Estimated model	V*	CharXiv	Source
Step 3.7 Flash	95.3%	79.9%	estimated ± 4.3 pp, high confidence