Calibration
Vals MMLU-Pro → HLE
HLE is estimated from Vals MMLU-Pro with a inverse Michaelis–Menten curve fitted on 29 models measured on both: y = 0.08531·(x − 0.0000) / (0.0000 + 1.0439 − x), R² = 0.48, cross-validated error 9.4 pp. It is used for 16 estimates.
| Estimated model | Vals MMLU-Pro | HLE | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.7 | 89.9% | 52.9% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| Gemini 3 Flash | 88.6% | 47.9% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| Muse Spark 1.2 | 88.3% | 46.8% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| GLM-5.3 | 86.8% | 42.1% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite | 86.2% | 40.4% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| GLM-5.3-Flash | 86.1% | 40.1% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite | 85.8% | 39.4% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| MiniMax M3 | 84.2% | 35.6% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| Qwen3.5 Flash | 84.1% | 35.4% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| MiMo-V2.5 | 82.9% | 32.9% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| GLM-4.6 | 82.2% | 31.6% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| GLM-4.5 | 81.2% | 29.9% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 78.7% | 26.1% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| Mistral Medium 3.5 128B | 75.3% | 22.1% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| Laguna XS.2 | 69.1% | 16.7% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |
| Laguna M.1 | 68.8% | 16.5% | estimated ± 9.4 pp, low confidence |