Calibration
Vals MMLU-Pro → HLE w/o tools
HLE w/o tools is estimated from Vals MMLU-Pro with a offset logistic curve fitted on 19 models measured on both: y = 0.2510 + (0.5738 − 0.2510) / (1 + exp(−64.54·(x − 0.8764))), R² = 0.86, cross-validated error 5.1 pp. It is used for 19 estimates.
| Estimated model | Vals MMLU-Pro | HLE w/o tools | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 | 91.5% | 54.9% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 78.7% | 25.2% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Claude Opus 4.7 | 89.9% | 51.3% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite | 86.2% | 34.2% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite | 85.8% | 32.6% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash | 89.3% | 49.1% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Gemini 3.7 Flash | 90.1% | 51.9% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Gemini 3 Flash | 88.6% | 46.1% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| GLM-4.5 | 81.2% | 25.6% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| GLM-4.6 | 82.2% | 26.0% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| GLM-5.3 | 86.8% | 37.0% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| GLM-5.3-Flash | 86.1% | 33.8% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Laguna M.1 | 68.8% | 25.1% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, low confidence |
| Laguna XS.2 | 69.1% | 25.1% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, low confidence |
| MiMo-V2.5 | 82.9% | 26.5% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| MiniMax M3 | 84.2% | 28.3% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Mistral Medium 3.5 128B | 75.3% | 25.1% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, low confidence |
| Muse Spark 1.2 | 88.3% | 44.6% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |
| Qwen3.5 Flash | 84.1% | 28.1% | estimated ± 5.1 pp, medium confidence |