Calibration

Vals MMLU-Pro → ARC-AGI-2

Name: benchgap: LLM benchmark scores, measured and estimated
Creator: benchgap

ARC-AGI-2 is estimated from Vals MMLU-Pro with a linear curve fitted on 24 models measured on both: y = 6.0753·x + -4.6961, R² = 0.69, cross-validated error 13.0 pp. It is used for 1 estimate.

Estimated model	Vals MMLU-Pro	ARC-AGI-2	Source
Muse Spark 1.2	88.3%	66.8%	estimated ± 13.0 pp, low confidence