Calibration
Vals GPQA Diamond → HLE w/o tools
HLE w/o tools is estimated from Vals GPQA Diamond with a offset logistic curve fitted on 19 models measured on both: y = 0.3058 + (0.4920 − 0.3058) / (1 + exp(−200.00·(x − 0.8931))), R² = 0.69, cross-validated error 6.6 pp. It is used for 0 estimates.