Calibration
Vals GPQA Diamond → ARC-AGI-2
ARC-AGI-2 is estimated from Vals GPQA Diamond with a linear curve fitted on 24 models measured on both: y = 4.3309·x + -3.2881, R² = 0.72, cross-validated error 12.6 pp. It is used for 17 estimates.
| Estimated model | Vals GPQA Diamond | ARC-AGI-2 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 72.2% | 0.0% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| Claude Opus 4.7 | 90.2% | 61.8% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite | 81.1% | 22.4% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite | 83.8% | 34.1% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| Gemini 3 Flash | 87.9% | 51.9% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| GLM-4.5 | 72.2% | 0.0% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| GLM-4.6 | 74.5% | 0.0% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| GLM-5.3 | 88.1% | 52.7% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| GLM-5.3-Flash | 86.4% | 45.4% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| Laguna M.1 | 27.0% | 0.0% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| Laguna XS.2 | 55.1% | 0.0% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| MiMo-V2.5 | 81.6% | 24.6% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| MiMo-V2.5-Pro | 82.6% | 28.9% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| MiniMax M3 | 92.7% | 72.7% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| Mistral Medium 3.5 128B | 34.8% | 0.0% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 91.2% | 66.2% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |
| Qwen3.5 Flash | 82.8% | 29.8% | estimated ± 12.6 pp, low confidence |